Blog tip

I wasn’t aware of it until recently but you should all go out of your way to check out the ‘Some People Are On The Pitch’ blog (link on the left).  It’s frequently updated with quality content such as their weekly “Weekend TV Preview’ which is an invaluable resource for alerting you to J-league stuff that you will never get round to seeing but might do if there was absolutely nothing else going on or nobody else around.

What I’ll be watching this weekend:

- Arsenal v Newcastle Utd, Premier League, Setanta Sports 1
- Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur, Premier League, Sky Sports 1 & HD1
- (After this I shall be flicking between) Bayern Munich v Hertha Berlin, Bundesliga, Setanta Sports 1 & Aston Villa v Liverpool, Premier League, Sky Sports 1 & HD1 & Numancia v Barcelona, La Liga, Sky Sports 1 (First half on red button only) & Fiorentina v Juventus, Serie A, Setanta Sports 2 & Deportivo v Real Madrid, La Liga, Sky Sports 1.

Team to watch: Atletico Madrid

Last night’s 4-0 destruction of a decent Schalke side (goals in the video vault on the right) confirmed what I had long suspected, that the other team in Madrid are more than worth paying attention to this season.

Betfair currently have them at 26-1 to win La Liga and 2-1 to win it with a 12 point headstart.  They are also 54-1 to win the Champions League.  In each of these bets I think there is value to be had.

A constant criticism of the side is that they have a good first XI and not much in the way of reserves but this is no longer the case.  Here is the squad for last night’s game…

25	Leo Franco	(G)
15	Johnny Heitinga	(D)
21	Luis Perea	(D)
18	Tomas Ujfalusi	(D)
4	Mariano Pernia	(D)
11	Maximiliano Rodriguez	(M)
8	Raúl García	(M)
16	Maniche	(M)
20	Simão	(M)
7	Diego Forlan	(F)
10	Sergio Leonel Aguero	(F)

Subs:

1	Gregory Coupet	(G)
2	Giourkas Seitaridis	(D)
22	Pablo Ibañez	(D)
9	Luis Garcia	(M)
12	Silva Paulo Assuncao	(M)
19	Miguel de las Cuevas	(M)
14	Florent Sinama-Pongolle	(F)

If you judge the depth of a squad by the strength of the substitutes bench then it’s a pretty impressive list.  When you also consider that they are rumoured to be in discussion with two highly-rated young Brazilian talents in Thiago Neves and (a personal favourite) Hernanes, then I don’t think there can be a doubt that they have the group of players needed to win trophies.

Sergio Aguero is second only to his fellow countryman Leo Messi as maybe the best player in the world under the age of 23 and his presence alone would turn most good sides into contenders.  When you combine his potency with the goalscoring threat of Diego Forlan, whose La Liga record is very impressive then you have one of the best strike partnerships in Spain.

The wing pairing of Simao and Maxi Rodriguez is one that is also unlikely to be bettered my many teams in Europe and with these two supplying the ammunition to the previously mentioned forwards then this is not a team that is going to be short of goals.  If Hernanes and Neves join to complete the attacking six then it’s frankly a daunting prospect.

They’ve also receuited an ageing but still reliable stopper in Gregory Coupet and the signing of Ajax’s captain and player of the year Johnny Heitinga is another shrewd move.  Uffalusi is another experienced head with plenty of class at the back.

I don’t expect them to a league / European double but there is value in the odds and they have the players to trouble anyone in Europe on their day.  Definitely a side to keep an eye out for and could be this year’s surprise package in La Liga, much like Villareal were last time out.  The difference in 2008/09 is that they have a superior squad to Villareal and will be in a better position to take advantage of the big two’s slip ups.  Barcelona looks very strong but are an unknown commodity under an inexperienced coach in Guardiola.  Similarly Madrid won at a canter in the end last season despite almost trying to throw it away with underwhelming performances at the end of the season.  With their main aim likely to be the Champions league, the time may be perfect for their local rivals to succeed them with domestic glory.

Monday morning headlines

With the seven days likely to be some of the most newsworthy of the year in footballing circles due to the end of the European transfer window, and the start-up of the remaining major leagues from the continent, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at what’s make the headlines on this bank holiday Monday.

International

We have new and retaining Olympic champions in the shape of Argentina, after their 1-0 defeat of Nigeria on Saturday. Brazil claimed the bronze medal after 3-0 win over surprise package Belgium on Friday.

Messi and Co were hot favourites for the title thanks to his inclusion and those of Javier Mascherano (who became the first man to win two gold medals) and captain Juan Roman Riquelme. Conversely, Brazilian coach Dunga went into the tournament with much pressure on his shoulders with the nation keen to claim the only international silverware that it has never won it its proud history. The inclusion of a half-fit and ineffective Ronaldinho was seemingly forced upon him by the FA, but as a side they still underperformed. Two sendings off in the South American semi showed an unusually frustrated and aggressive edge to a group of players struggling to live up to expectations back home.

Everton’s Victor Anichebe spoke highly of Nigeria’s home-grown coach and his achievements in African football. The hope now is that the continent will have more faith in home-reared managers rather than relying on European imports keen to earn a good salary without investing any passion into the job… ala Berti Vogts. The focus now turns to London in 2012 but questions remain over the sports inclusion in the games at all. Maybe the landmark “Messi ruling” before the tournament will neuter all future competitions pointless. Regardless of if the players themselves like it or not.

England

I didn’t get to see either of Sunday’s games but the scariest story I woke up to (in the trivial world of football anyway) was the injury to Man City defender Micah Richards after a clash of heads with Tal Beh Haim. City went on to win the game 3-0 with Daniel Sturridge, who looks a top prospect, opening the scoring. If you have high blood pressure then don’t read the next link but ‘Executive Chairman’ Garry Cook gave a series of horrifyingly self-serving interviews to all the broadsheets at the weekend with his views on the future of football. Here he is talking to the Guardian.

Deco continues to impress everyone although by all accounts Wigan were unlucky not to get something from the 1-0 loss to Chelsea.

Spurs are in disarray with Berbatov refusing the play as the club went down at home to Sunderland, to repeat last season’s terrible start. I was present at White Hart Lane and can take very few positives from the game but shall refrain from going into detail as I’ll be here all day. Check the Spurs form on xtratime (left) for more in-depth analysis. At least Arsenal lost.

Italy / Portugal / Spain

Jose Mourinho wasted no time in picking up his first silverware in Italy when Inter Milan claimed the Supercoppa on penalties after a 2-2 draw against Roma. Italy is also following the example set by Ebbsfleet United by offering fans the chance to part-own a football club and have a say in its running.

The Portugese league kicked off with last season’s champions Porto starting with a home win. Sporting Lisbon, who beat Porto in the Supercup, also got off to a winning start with a 3-1 home win while Benfica were held 1-1 by a newly-promoted side.

Real Madrid won the Spanish season opener with a remarkable 4-2 (and 6-5 on aggregate) win over Valencia despite having two men sent off. With nine men on the pitch, they rallied to score three goals in the last thirteen minutes to cap an unbelievable comeback. Ruben De La red will be a name to keep an eye on this year – hopefully his progress is not held back too much by the embarassment of riches Madrid have in midfield. In Barcelona, Juan Laporta retained control of the club after just surviving a vote on confidence at the general meeting.

Scotland

Celtic sit top of the league ahead of Rangers and Kilmarnock on goal difference, with all sides having seven points after three games. Maybe Killy will be this season’s Hearts (who have six points) and push the Old Firm slightly. I doubt it too.

Germany

A few posts ago I talked about Hoffenheim (search function at the top) and their incredibly story. Well, they continued the adventure by claiming their second win of the season and moving clear at the top of the league. Klinsmann is yet to record a league win with Bayern but they fought back from 1-0 down with ten men to get a draw at Dortmund. It beats throwing away two goal leads I guess. My German team of choice Hamburg won 2-1 to remain undefeated under Martin Jol, and sources in Brazil say we may be close to signing two players.  Alex Silva (if I’m thinking of the right player) should replace Kompany who impressed on debut for Man City yesterday.

France

Lyon and Marsielle are already one and two in ligue 1. Expect that to be a pretty familiar theme. Auxerre lost 1-0 at home to Nice. Bordeaux, who have a number of players that I like, beat Nantes 2-0 to move third. Exciting prospect Henri Saivet made an appearance from the substitutes bench late in proceedings.

£5 Euro 2008 betting preview

Around two weeks ago I was considering writing about one of the 16 teams in Euro 2008 every day in the build up the tournament’s start. On Monday I was considering a four-day-long preview where I examined a different group every day. This morning I was thinking about an all-encompassing preview in one long post. Now, with the tournament starting tomorrow, you get something better than all those three combined. My much sought after gambling preview which, due to me covering so many bases, should be live throughout the tournament.

I have a massive fiver burning a hole in my online Bet365 account and as finances are slightly stretched I don’t plan on investing any more during the tournament. With such limited funds, betting on favourites or short-odds bets doesn’t seem worthwhile. I could try and keep backing winner favourite after favourite and re-investing every time I’d inevitably be let down by Austria getting revenge for 1938 against Germany or something. This means that backing an outright winner seems largely pointless as everyone, except one team, with half a chance is below 10-1.

Top tournament goalscorer is a more tempting market. Although once again it seems a little small-fry for me. I want to win BIG on this tournament and that means combining the two. Tournament winner / top goalscorer. This is a dodgy bet because someone like Torres could easily score the most goals yet Germany win the show outright. These fixed markets only account for one country winning the Golden Boot and the trophy. Still – It’s only a fiver. I’ll start with the most interesting bet first.

Romania & Adrian Mutu @ 351.00, £1.00 Single

This is my most outlandish bet and I expect to be laughed at heartily for picking it.  However it is far from as unlikely as the odds would suggest.

I think the winner is going to come from the ill-fated GROUP OF MURDEROUS DEATH but I think Holland can be pretty much written off.  I like Robben, Van Der Vaart and Sneijder but their defence is poor and overall I don’t think they quite have what it takes.  Romania on the other hand are being written off as the whipping boys of the group but they actually took four points from Holland in the qualifying stages.  They won said group, which also contained Bulgaria Slovenia, with +19 goal difference over only 12 games.  This suggests they score goals and don’t concede many at all, even against good teams (Holland failed to score against them at all).

They have two outstanding players in Adrian Mutu (above) and Christian Chivu with a promising young striker in Ciprian Marica also leading the line.  Mutu is only seven goals off equaling Hagi’s national record for international goals and could feasibly match or better that in the coming weeks, in about half the number of games it took the ex-Barcelona man.  It’s not been a great start to June for Adrian, but it could end very nicely.

In my mind they are capable of getting 5 points in the group and have enough acumen to beat anyone in Europe on their day.  I know this sounds quite obvious for a team ranked 12th in the world but for reason they have been largely ignored.  I am getting in early so I can say I told you so when they take the trophy back to Bucharest.  Nobody gave Greece a chance four years ago, and their squad didn’t contain players possessing the class and guile that Mutu and Chivu provide.

France & Karim Benzema @ 81.00, £1.00 Single

Now for the first of the four more obvious choices.  France have an amazing squad despite their trouble in qualifying.  Nasri, Ribery, Toulalon, Henry, Anelka, Makelele and yet a young guy from Lyon could very well be in the ace in the crown.

Lyon have slapped a €50m price tag on his head after Man Utd were rumoured to be sniffing around and for good reason.  He is arguably the best striker under the age of 21 in the world and doesn’t seem to have any flaws.  He is tall, strong, good in the air, pacey and capable of finishing with both feet.  My only worries would be that despite all the above, France tend to have loyalty to the veterans in their side and he may not start every game with Henry and Anelka also in the squad.  Also, the GROUP OF TORTUROUS DEATH is likely to a tight one and strikers in weaker groups (see my next pick) could have a major head start by the time it gets to the qualifying rounds.

Still though, 80-1 seems very generous and worth a pound of investment.

Germany & Mario Gomez @ 34.00, £1.00 Single

With reference to my Benzema / France comments, Germany find themselves in a very different situation.  They are favourites to win the tournament and it is hard to argue even considering their lack of star power compared to rival nations.

First of all, they have the easiest group by far.  They could not have cherry-picked it any better.  They will face co-hosts Austria – who must be one of the worst teams to qualify from a European Championships in some years, Poland – Another poor side who seem to perennial qualifiers but consistent early-leavers at the same time, and Croatia – a talented team but one lacking their top scorer and only potent goal threat.

It is basically a home tournament for them as well and you would expect them to score hatfuls of goals early on.  Miroslav Klose has profited in recent tournaments from similar situations and could do again this time.  However better value can be found in his likely strike partner Mario Gomez.  He has scored 44 goals in his last 62 games for his club Stuttgart and is being tipped as one to watch by informed European journalists.  I don’t personally think Germany will be outright winners, but the much-spoke cliche tells us to never write them off and if they are to triumph then this man may be hailed as the architect.

Italy & Luca Toni @ 34.00, £1.00 Single

Whose to say that the world champions don’t have a shot of doing the double, ala France in 1998 and 2002.  Captain Fabio Cannavaro is injured but expect their defence to be as water-tight as ever.  Their problems could lie up front if anywhere.  Del Piero is being trotted out for another tournament but it could be one-too many for the legend from Turin.  Cassano is talented, but also mental.  Borriello and Di Natale have had good seasons but are unproven internationally.

Their go-to man will undoubtedly be Luca Toni.  He has just had a great debut season in Munich where he claimed top scorer honours in the Bundesliga.  He also averages a goal nearly every other game for his country.  Italy are second favourites to win the tournament with most bookmakers but that will not be possible without a good tournament from the highest paid player in Europe.

Spain & Fernando Torres @ 17.00, £1.00 Single

My final and most predictable choice.  This is reflected in the frankly awful odds on offer.  However if I had to stake my reputation (ha!) on choosing one combination then this would be it.

Spain have an outrageously talented group of players including Fabregas, Casillas, Xavi, Villa and a favourite of mine in Iniesta.  Their shaky defence is offset by an easier potential route to the finals compared to their main rivals.  Ignore the boringly repetitive pundits who will Pavlovian repeat to you “they never do it in big tournaments”, this is their best chance in ages and El Nino is the most likely out of anyone to help them finally fulfil their potential.

RONALDO JOINS REAL MADRID!

Along with “Swiss and Austrian police express disappointment at England-less tournament” and “Arsene Wenger to be best man at David Bentley’s wedding”, the above is just one of the many headlines you won’t be reading this summer.

I understand it’s an awkward summer for sports journalists in this country. England and / or Scotland failing to qualify for Euro 2008 has hit them hard. Advertising revenues are down and not as many will get to experience the delights of Austria and Switzerland as will have hoped.

Therefore as your average British tabloid readers don’t care about football matches where they don’t have a tattoo or at least replica shirt for ones of the team involved they will have to find other avenues with which to fill the back pages. This will inevitably involve largely unfounded rumours being portrayed as fact mixed in with massive hyperbolic exaggerations about stories with a hint of truth but little developments.

I can only imagine the disappointment that surged through newsrooms when the story of Avram Grant’s dismissal broke on Saturday afternoon. He’s been a news goldmine ever since he was handed the job and the papers have enjoyed feasting on his every move in the past seven months or so. A large portion of that has been spent criticising him in every possible way and speculating on replacements and what fun they’ve had.

Now Abramovich has only gone and ruined that fun by doing the one thing they have been advising for the whole period and actually sacked him. They couldn’t do it midway through July could they, oh no. They had to do it before May was even out. With the news emerging tonight that Chelsea have already begun interviewing and expect to name a replacement in the next few days the story becomes even shorter. They can’t spend the weeks they would have liked speculating on his successor. The Independent got their pound of flesh today with a story even they admitted had little foundation in reporting Didier Deschamps keenness to take over at Stamford Bridge. If Chelsea don the worst thing possible and appoint an acknowledged coach with a clean reputation then they really will be sticking two fingers up to the press.

In the absence of anything exciting happening in West London (bar Fulham signing Bernand mendy on a free transfer!!!) attentions have been turned to Manchester. We seem set for a summer of “Will he, won’t he?” regarding Ronaldo possibly moving to Madrid. View From The Shelf can exclusively trump everyone and break the news for you now…

…

…he won’t.

A journalist I respect in Graham Hunter was quoted on Sky Sports News earlier as saying words to the effect of “Ronaldo could clear all this up once and for all if he would just commit himself to Utd but his silence speaks volumes.” Did everyone miss the Champions League final? In the immediate aftermath of the game an ITV reporter said “Cristiano, you can’t leave after something like this can you?” to which he replied “No, I will be here next season.” I would say you cannot get a more clear cut denial than that.

The sceptical may say that he may have meant he will be in Moscow next season rather than Manchester, but I don’t think anyone can produce enough oil to pay for a Portuguese playboy who has said that even the North of England is too cold for him to move to Russia.

Quite simply there is not a story here and I will do whatever people deem a suitable online equivalent of eating my hat is if the move does transpire in the next couple of months. The papers are desperate to fill the space and the TV channels need something to report on. What better than a story involving the two biggest clubs in the world arguing over a good-looking, controversy-magnet who also happens to be one of the best players in Europe.

As I said earlier, I can understand why they are talking about it. I just wish so many people would stop falling for it. The next person who asks me what I think about the rumoured move will be treated with the short shrift they deserve and directed immediately to this post.

Zidane to QPR?

Is Zidane QPR bound?

The English football season still has couple of weeks to go but already the frenzied summer activity of transfer deals and managerial swaps has begun.

In one of the strangest stories I’ve heard in a while, Zinedine Zidane is being rumoured as a successor to Luigi De Canio who parted ways with QPR earlier today.  I can and I can’t believe it as the owners are incredibly ambitious and have lots of money to spend if not necessarily waste as they’ll want to see a return on it.

What better way to bring attention to a team who are the currently relatively anonymous compared to their past glories than bring in one of the most famous names and faces in world football to lead the revolution.  Sure he’s got no managerial experience but that doesn’t often matter to these owners with little experience of the industry.  This will certainly be an interesting one to follow over the coming weeks.

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In totally expected news, Frank Rijkaard will be replaced by Pep Guardiola at the end of the season. This smacks of a Johan Cruyff appointment (who as we all know is the real power broker in Barcelona) and it’s got to be considered a risky move to appoint a 37-year-old with one season of fourth division management under his belt.  He’s a club icon so the fans will be lenient but with a number of high profile players almost certain to leave this summer (Ronaldinho, Eto’o, possibly Henry) then it could be the worst possible start to a managerial career.  On the other hand he is about to inherit a team full of young talent like Iniesta, Bojan, Dos Santos – assuming he rejects Shinawatra’s dodgy bundles of cash, Messi and at the same time losing the egos that were pulling the club in different directions.  When you look at it that way you wonder what more somebody could ask for.

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Talking of Dr Thaksin, the Taiwanese circus at Man City continues to entertain.  They made an interesting point on the Th Game podcast (see links) that Shinawatra only intends to be at the club for around three years and his sole aim is to increase the profile of the club and make it more valuable in that time frame so that he can make a buck when he sells it on.  That certainly explains his determination to sign Ronaldinho despite nobody at the club wanting him.

Also with the players seemingly on the verge of mutiny (Dunne, Johnson, Hart and Richards have all been linked with moves in the past few days) then you have to wonder what any manager would find attractive about the opportunity despite, again, a large wad of money.  The treatment of Sven (who is suddenly a media darling – strange how things work out) shows that the Thais have little idea about perspective and realistic expectations.  Is Peter Reid still out of work?

The finishing line approaches

Having finally decided that someone may as well win La Liga, despite nobody apparently wanting it that much, Real Madrid confirmed regained the La Liga title for the second consecutive year with a dramatic 2-1 victory over Osasuna. Coach Bernd Schuster has apparently been assured that he will not be sacked over the summer and will be given the chance to mount a proper challenge for the Champions League next season.

Reports in Bulgaria also suggest that Madrid may be the likely destination of Dimitar Berbatov should (when) he leaves Spurs this summer. if he has to leave, and I sincerely hope that he doesn’t, then I’d love him to go to a team like Real or AC Milan so that I could continue to follow his career with a clear conscience. It would be heartbreaking to watch him play for a different English team every week and even see him come back to White Hart Lane in someone else’s colours.

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Chelsea kept their Premiership dream alive at least for a few more days with a 2-0 win away at Newcastle earlier today. The match was fairly routine but it was followed by anabsolutely bizarre interview from Kevin Keegan where he said he doesn’t expect Newcastle to progress next season.

The ever-useless Jamie Redkanpp then said that Newcastle can’t expect to finish higher than tenth at best with their current squad. The same squad that contains Michael Owen, Obafemi Martins, Mark Vuduka, Shay Given, Habib Beye, Abdoulaye Faye, Steven Taylor, Joey Barton etc etc… Not all of them are top drawer players but Reading finished eigth last year with a team substantially poorer on paper.

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Bayern Munich confirmed what everyone already knew when their nil nil draw confirmed them as Bundesliga winners. Raphael Honigstein has a lovely line at the end of his weekly article…

In Munich, policemen scrambled to close off the main streets in anticipation of revelling crowds. But no one turned up. The 21st title had been a formality a long time ago. No one could pretend otherwise. The Red and White faithful were no more in the mood to celebrate this success than a man who’s filled out €70m-worth of lottery tickets and finds he has won his money back.

His column also tells a very interesting story about Jan Koller’s own fans turning on him despite being their best hope of avoiding relegation.

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In Italy Inter Milan missed out on the opportunity to effectively clinch the title by losing “El Derby” 2-1 to AC Milan. Highlights of the game can be found here (including a completely amazing miss from Filippo Inzaghi at the 1.35 mark) and it provides suitable ammunition for those Kaka obsessives following on from a post made yesterday. For the time being at least Roma still have at least a mathematical chance of snatching the title at the last minute although given the team’s relative fixtures remaining you would be foolish to bet on it.

One such fixture for Inter Milan will be when they travel to Parma, my Italian team, for the last game of the season. This game could both crown them as champions and unfortunately send their opponents crashing to Serie B at the same time. They currently lie one point adrift of safety and depressingly their other remaining game is away to Fiorentina who themselves are fighting for the final champions league place. It’s not looking promising.

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Talking of AC, in the least surprising bit of transfer news we’ll see all summer, Matthieu Flamini shocked nobody by turning his back on Arsene Wenger in favour of receiving Milanese bags with a € sign printed on the front. This doesn’t bother me but it strikes me as a pretty mercenary act on his part. If this was at the end of last season then I could understand him leaving after not having secured a starting spot or even worse being played out of position at left back, excellently, and being dropped for a Champions League final. Maybe he bears a grudge?

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His soon-to-be former central midfield partner Cesc Fabregas features in an advert that is the subject of much outrage over at The Offside. For those that haven’t seen it (and as someone that doesn’t watch a whole heap of television I couldn’t tell if it;s started airing yet or not) it involved the Arsenal midfielder being covered in fireproof clothing and then set alight. A football is then is then doused in lighter fluid and set aflame which he uses to perform kick ups.

I can’t say I’m as outraged as they appear to be, and I’m inclined to agree with one of the commenters that it is probably someone else rather than Fab who was actually set light to, but it’s reasonably impressive nonetheless.